A new national survey finds former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE and Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) and Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) statistically tied for the lead in the race to face President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE in 2020.
The latest poll from Monmouth University finds Biden and Warren each receiving the support of 23 percent of respondents, with Sanders close behind at 20 percent. The survey of Democratic voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points, putting the top three candidates in a statistical dead heat.
Sanders gained the most from the same survey last month, surging 5 points, while Warren lost 5 points and Biden lost 2 points.
Rounding out the top eight are the rising South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE at 9 percent, who picked up 5 points from last month; Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.) at 5 percent; Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-N.J.) and tech entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangGeorge Floyd protests show corporations must support racial and economic equality Andrew Yang discusses his universal basic income pilot program Andrew Yang on the George Floyd protests in Minneapolis MORE at 3 percent each and Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Democrats demand Republican leaders examine election challenges after Georgia voting chaos Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-Minn.) at 2 percent.
“It is interesting that these results look a lot like what was considered an outlier poll back in August,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “But the current numbers are not an outlier with other recent national polls being all over the place. This is just another reminder that there is no such thing as a national primary. Most of the voters we talk to right now are not really anchoring their choices to an actual election decision just yet.”
Democratic voters were asked to rate the candidates on a scale of zero to 10 as to the likelihood of defeating Trump, with 10 being the likeliest.
Biden is still viewed as the strongest Democrat in a head-to-head match-up with Trump, with 51 percent of Democratic voters rating him at 8, 9 or 10. Biden’s average score is 7.3, down from 7.7 in June.
But Warren and Sanders have closed the electability gap, with Warren rising from 6.4 in June to 7.1 presently, and Sanders averaging a 7, up from 6.5.
Among all voters, only 42 percent said Trump should be reelected in 2020, with 55 percent saying it’s time for someone new.
But those numbers have improved for Trump since House Democrats launched an impeachment inquiry. The same survey from August found that just 39 percent said Trump should be reelected and 57 percent said it was time for someone new.
“It’s important not to read too much into differences within the margin of error. But the fact that there is no significant change in the current results suggests that the opening salvo of the House impeachment inquiry has had little impact on the overall 2020 dynamic,” said Murray. “Voter opinion remains baked in.”
The Monmouth University survey of 835 registered voters nationwide has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The survey of 345 Democrats has a 5.3 percentage-point margin of error. The poll was conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 3.
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